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Question:

A couple has two children, (i) Find the probability that both children are males, if it is known that at least one of the children is male. (ii) Find the probability that both children are females, if it is known that the elder child is a female.

Answer:

Given, a couple has two children.

1. Let A denotes both children are male i.e. {MM}

and B denotes at least one child is male i.e. {MF, FM, MM}

Now, A ∩ B = {MM}

P(A) = (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4

P(B) = 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 3/4

So, P(A ∩ B) = 1/4

Now, P(A/B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B)

=> P(A/B) = (1/4)/(3/4)

=> P(A/B) = 1/3

2. Let A denotes both children are females i.e. {FF}

Now, P(A) = (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4

and B denotes elder children is a female i.e. {FF, FM}

P(B) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2

Now, P(A ∩ B) = 1/4

Now, P(Both the children are female if elder child is female)

      P(A/B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B)

=> P(A/B) = (1/4)/(1/2)

=> P(A/B) = 1/2

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